A resounding victory for Ukraine would mean catastrophe for some Russians. Russia’s economy remains resilient thanks to war-related activities, but its focus on defense is dangerous for growth and stability.
Polls suggest a majority of Ukrainians are open to negotiations. But most are opposed to a range of terms Moscow might demand, including a reduction in Ukraine’s military capabilities and a commitment that Ukraine will never join NATO.
It’s Making Some Poor Russians
Russia’s war against Ukraine is not just bad for its neighbors; it has also driven up food insecurity and poverty inside the country. Its impact is spreading globally, with food price shocks and global inflation adding to broader economic damage through higher interest rates, weaker capital inflows, and the collapse of remittances from Ukrainian workers.
The war has made some poor Russians better off, complicating any calculus over how to end it. That’s especially true in regions that depend heavily on military recruitment, where household deposits have risen since the start of the conflict.
But Putin’s ambitions are deeper than a return to empire. He sees the conflict in Ukraine as part of a struggle against Pax Americana to shape the future of international order. He believes that the collapse of the Soviet Union was not just a humiliation but a defeat from which “historically Russian” territory has never recovered.
That may sound far-fetched, but it is the central logic behind his war in Ukraine. Unless sanctions and growing dissent inside Russia push him to negotiate, the Kremlin will remain committed to undermining Ukraine’s (and Georgia’s and Moldova’s and Armenia’s) democracy and sovereignty for as long as Putin remains in power. And that could be a very long time. This piece originally appeared in The Wall Street Journal.
It’s Making Some Poor Ukrainians
The war in Ukraine is raging into its third year. Russia has a huge advantage in numbers of troops and equipment, and Ukrainian leaders have struggled to match Moscow’s output. But a victory for Putin would be a disaster for Ukraine, both economically and politically. The country’s independence and EU aspirations would be ended, and it might find itself overwhelmed by refugee flows. A victorious Russia might also try to seize the country and impose a puppet regime.
The most obvious way to stop the war is for Western democracies to unite behind a plan to ensure a crushing Russian defeat. A peace process, akin to the one proposed by Pope Francis, might help.
But the Kremlin won’t play along. It has rebuffed Turkey’s recent proposal for a peace summit, and is scornful of Ukraine’s own 10-point plan.
The only possible way to end the war on a just basis is to remove from power, by whatever legitimate means are available, the messianic mass murderer who started it: Vladimir Putin. As the conflict enters its third year, Ukraine needs a fresh surge of support from its friends. That might include the US, which hasn’t yet done enough to counter Russia’s financial, military, and political leverage. And it should be prepared to back up any peace effort by stepping up defense production and donating more weapons to Ukraine, including long-range missiles to take out Russia’s bases in Crimea.
It’s Making Some Poor Europeans
Two years into the war, Ukraine is a battlefield of attrition. Despite its losses, the country is holding its own and has the grit to fight on. But it is running out of shells. The West’s failure to send weapons means that Ukrainian soldiers are dangerously short of something even more important: the fighting spirit required to win.
Ultimately, Ukraine’s prospects of winning its war rest on its ability to convince Russia that it cannot win it. The Kremlin leader is not going to compromise on his maximalist goals in Ukraine. He wants to annex the five regions of the country he has illegally seized, a land grab larger than Switzerland and Austria combined. He also wants to undermine NATO’s defences and stifle Ukrainian nationalism.
The Kremlin’s chilling vision of reclaiming “historically Russian lands” threatens a large swath of Europe, and it is not going away. The Western policy elites may delude themselves into believing that a deal with Putin is possible, but it will not come until he is compelled to accept defeat.
It is hard to overstate how bad Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is. It has thrown millions into poverty, destroyed or disrupted the economy of a neighbouring state and created serious risks to global food security. It is a calamity that should be addressed by an international coalition, including those countries dependent on Ukrainian grain, which will finally join forces to hold Putin accountable for his flagrant violations of global human security and justice.
It’s Making Some Poor People
Unless the violence stops, the war will have shattered Ukraine’s economy and destroyed many families’ primary sources of income. Millions of people will face economic distress, and Ukraine’s already weakening population could cause demographic catastrophe. Those suffering the most will be the most vulnerable: the elderly, the sick, and the children of the working age who have been deprived of jobs and pensions by the war.
A ceasefire might buy some breathing space for peace negotiations without sacrificing Ukraine’s broader objectives, but Putin will insist that Kiev must make major territorial concessions. His chilling dream of reclaiming “historically Russian” territory puts many other countries at risk, as well.
Even a military victory for Russia will not bring peace to Ukraine. It will leave the country devastated, fragmenting communities, destroying infrastructure, and undermining economic growth. It will further depress the birth rate and exacerbate emigration, leaving Ukrainians to live longer, poorer lives.
It will also set a dangerous precedent for seizing territory with force, potentially encouraging China and others to do the same. And the United States, which has promised to retaliate if Ukraine is defeated, would suffer irreparable damage to its international standing, especially if Donald Trump, who has repeatedly praised Putin, becomes president and halts or slows U.S. defense aid to Ukraine. As a result, there will be no peace in Ukraine until the messianic mass murderer who started this war is removed, by any legitimate means necessary.